Choudhury’s insight on the diplomatic challenge of India   

In a recent article titled ‘Western Powers and India Spar Over New Delhi’s Alleged Assassinations Abroad’ penned by Angshuman Choudhury for The Diplomat on November 28, 2023, the geopolitical landscape surrounding India’s alleged involvement in pre-emptive assassinations abroad takes center stage. The intricacies of this complex issue are meticulously dissected, shedding light on the diplomatic tensions that have unfolded between India and Canada, spurred by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s accusations regarding the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil.

Choudhury opens his analysis by highlighting the inherent challenges faced by India in pursuing pre-emptive actions, particularly in comparison to nations with greater global influence, such as Israel or China. The lack of clout on the international stage significantly complicates India’s ability to navigate such allegations unscathed. Against this backdrop, the author provides a comprehensive overview of the events that unfolded, emphasizing the unprecedented nature of the conflict between India and Canada, considering their historical alliance.

The article delves into the escalating tensions triggered by Trudeau’s public accusation against India and the subsequent expulsion of the station chief of India’s foreign intelligence agency from Canada. Choudhury explores the various retaliatory measures taken by both nations, including the expulsion of diplomats and the suspension of visa services, painting a vivid picture of the diplomatic fallout. The author’s portrayal of the paradox within the India-Canada relationship is central to the narrative. Despite the apparent hostility over the Khalistan issue, the two nations have maintained a robust alliance characterized by a bilateral civil nuclear agreement, strong economic ties, and shared perspectives on countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Choudhury underscores the stabilizing role these factors play, preventing a complete rupture in relations despite the current discord.

The article meticulously examines India’s response to Trudeau’s allegations, noting the swift denial and the subsequent counter-accusation that Canada shelters “Khalistani terrorists and extremists.” The author points out the intriguing choice of language, traditionally reserved for India’s arch-rival, Pakistan, injecting a layer of complexity into the unfolding diplomatic narrative.

As the diplomatic tit-for-tat continues, Choudhury introduces the role of the United States, a close ally to both Canada and India. The delicate balancing act of the Biden administration is scrutinized, expressing concern over Trudeau’s allegations while urging India to cooperate in the Canadian investigation. The article raises pertinent questions about the U.S. stance, especially in light of information leaked by The New York Times and The Intercept regarding intelligence on Nijjar’s killing and alleged Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) warnings to Sikh activists.

A significant turning point in the narrative is the Financial Times report claiming that the FBI thwarted an Indian conspiracy to assassinate another pro-Khalistan Sikh activist, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, on US soil. Choudhury astutely notes the nuanced difference in India’s response to this report, contrasting it with the more confrontational tone adopted in response to Trudeau’s allegations. The author contends that the delicate dance between India and the US, marked by mutual dependence, prevents a replication of the tensions witnessed with Canada.

The article further explores India’s limited maneuverability in this geopolitical chessboard, as it seeks US cooperation on the Khalistani threat while treading carefully to avoid straining its critical geopolitical relationship. Choudhury raises the possibility of the US leveraging its influence to push back against Indian demands, questioning whether the leaked report was a subtle warning to India.

The author goes beyond the immediate diplomatic fracas to delve into the broader issue of diasporic Sikh separatism, examining the ideological divergence between India and the West on matters of terrorism, rule of law, and extrajudicial actions. The Western perspective, viewing the Khalistan movement through the lens of human rights and freedom of speech, is contrasted with India’s insistence on a punitive approach, adding a layer of complexity to the ideological contestations at play.

In a nuanced exploration, Choudhury contends that the stance of west is rooted in the sustained advocacy and targeted lobbying by Sikh organizations with the Western political elite. The article posits that most Western governments perceive the ostensibly clear line separating political activism from violent extremism within the pro-Khalistan movement as blurred, further complicating India’s position on the global stage.

The article concludes with a speculative gaze into the potential ramifications for India’s foreign policy, especially if Prime Minister Modi chooses to exploit the issue for political gain in the run-up to the 2024 general elections. Choudhury suggests that, despite official denials of extrajudicial assassinations, the narrative could bolster Modi’s image as a strong nationalist leader. However, the author also warns of the potential jeopardy this bravado poses to India’s foreign policy objectives, particularly as the nation positions itself as a proponent of the ‘rules-based order’ in the Indo-Pacific.

Bappy Rahman is a development practitioner